I understand why the White House supported Arlen Specter in the Democratic primaries, it was a reward for his switching parties, and provided an inducement to other potential Republicans who might consider switching, like uh……… uh……… uh………

OK, there is not another potential switcher, but it all seemed so wonderfully hopey–changey post partisan.

Well, largely on the basis of the fact that Arlen Specter is really all about Arlen Specter, and the fact that Joe Sestak is pointing it out to people (see vid), Arlen Specter is now lagging in the polls, and as the incumbent with good name recognition.

The rule of thumb that the undecideds nearly always break for the challenger by something like 2:1, so I reiterate my statement that Arlen Specter is toast.

So, the White House loses one here, and they are doing something really stupid, which is to walk back their support of Specter now that it is likely that he is going to lose the election:

If this is true, it’s significant: CBS chief Washington correspondent Bob Schieffer is now saying that he has it on good authority that the White House is privately bracing for Arlen Specter to lose tomorrow.

………

I’ve also learned that Veep Joe Biden will not be doing any campaign events for Specter in the final stretch, though it’s not immediately clear how significant this is. Last week, Biden said he’d be doing events for Specter “as needed.”

But a Biden aide confirms for me that no campaign events are scheduled, even though Biden will be in Pennsylvania tonight speaking at his daughter’s graduation. Biden has done radio interviews on Specter’s behalf.

This recognizes a problem with the Obama administration, and for the Clinton and Carter administrations before them: An unwillingness to continue fighting when victory seems unlikely.

I can understand some talking points flowing out about, “an anti-incumbency mood,” and suchlike, but the idea that when faced with less than a 50:50 change of success, the choice is to fold like overcooked Brussels sprouts has negative consequences.

It convinces allies that you don’t have their back, and it convinces opponents that they can take a temporary advantage, and use it to kill a proposal early in the process.

I never thought that they should support Specter, or for that matter Lincoln, but sawing off the branch won’t endear other Democrats with the concept of going out on a limb for Obama.