It’s Rasmussen, and they say that Democrat candidate Martha Coakley leads Republican Scott Brown by 50% to 41%.

Not particularly surprising.

Obviously special elections are rather quirky affairs, what with turnout being low, but Coakley’s turnout machine worked well in the primary, so I think that this is, absent her doing something really stupid, is in the bag.

There is an interesting point here though: If Brown were to win, the Dems would be down to 59 seats, and the Republican filibuster would hold, which might force the White House and Congress to use reconciliation, which might create a much better bill.

So, which is it, The Lady or the Tiger?