A Dutch report is saying that the total number of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters to be produced may be half of estimates, largely because of changes in warfare (UAVs) and cost escalation.

This is particularly significant for the Dutch, because one of the selling points for the aircraft to the RNAF is that the cost of their purchases will largely be offset by the revenue that Dutch companies will derive from sales of aircraft to other countries.

If the numbers go down, the price goes up, and the ratio of revenue takes a decided turn for the worse:

Rising costs, changing threats and rival aircraft — manned and unmanned — could cut nearly in half the number of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters that ultimately are built, a Dutch defense analyst said in a report to the Dutch parliament. And if fewer planes are built, the price for each, already $100 million or more, will undoubtedly increase, analyst Johan Boeder warned.

A “likely estimate” is that 2,500 F-35s eventually will be built, Boeder wrote in a report delivered to Dutch lawmakers in September. The Netherlands, one of nine countries financing the development of the F-35, was expected to buy 85 planes, but maycut that to 57, Boeder said.

I think the idea that the aircraft will cost less than $100 million at current procurement numbers is delusional, and if the numbers go down, the price goes up.

To procure a meaningful aircraft, you must with start with purchase and life-cycle costs as a primary requirement, and work back from there.