Economics Update

You know that old saying about releasing bad news on a Friday, because everyone is looking toward the weekend?

It’s one of those Fridays.

Let’s start with Ireland, where the Anglo Irish Bank, the 3rd largest in that country has been declared insolvent and nationalized. I’m beginning to think that the “Celtic Tiger” is on its way back to poetic poverty, particularly now that places like Poland and Slovakia are cheaper labor markets.

In the world of recession/deflation, we have the CPI falling 0.7% and industrial production falling 2% in December.

I’m beginning to think that the US will start to resemble Ireland…Without the Poetry bit.

We also have a couple of updates courtesy of Calculated Risk, with Los Angeles Area Port Traffic falling sharply and office vacancy rate rising in Q4.

Note that there are predictions of a 30% drop in office rents, and that exports are dropping more than imports, so this is not a turn around on the deficit.

In retail, we have Toyota North America announcing cuts in production, and Circuit City is going to liquidate, as in, no more Circuit City, no kidding.

In currency, more bailouts to banks means more concerns about the dollar, so it fell today.

In energy, oil was up slightly today, but down most of the day, after the IEA predicted that demand would continue to fall, and retail gasoline was up again, which means that it’s gone up around $0.20/gal since New Years day.

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