Economics Update

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OK, the markets went wild on the expectation that the Fed will cut rates tomorrow….I’m not impressed, truth be told….As I’ve said before, I think that the Fed is pushing on a string with interest rates.

What is or more interest is the fact that the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the commercial paper market has appeared to raise rates, rather than lower them. From Bloomberg:

Yields on commercial paper rose as the Federal Reserve began buying the debt directly from companies, showing the central bank’s efforts to unfreeze short- term credit markets have yet to take hold.

I think that the Fed is looking at a monetary solutiuon, when the solution is government legislation and government spending.

Still, this has not stopped GMAC from going in with the Fed’s commercial paper facility.

BTW, the Fed is doing something else, currency swaps with other central banks, most recently the Central Bank of New Zealand, though it has set up similar arrangements with Australia, Canada, and Japan too.

It’s supposed to help maintain liquidity, but I have no clue how this works. Anyone want to explain this to me?

What I do understand is the Federal Reserve going into the commercial paper market in the US. Ge just borrowed $5 billion from the fed.

Of course, even there, there is stuff that I don’t get, like why is the Federal Reserve starting to buy foreign commercial paper?

In any related news, the Treasury is looking at extending the bailout to privately held banks, though one wonders how they get a meaningful equity stake, as Bush Paulson and His Evil Minions™ had promised for any direct aid.

I’m not sure if this is working, as is noted at Calculated Risk:

  • 3 month treasuries are essentially unchanged.
  • TED spread is marginally better.
  • The two year swap spread is a bit worse.

Of course, that is just the world of banking. In the real world, the perceptions are actually worse, with the Conference Board’s measure of Consumer Confidence hitting the lowest reading ever recorded, dropping to 38 from September’s 61.4

This graph (click for full size), courtesy of Calculated Risk, of the Case Shiller numbers and makes a good counterpoint to the most recent housing data, also from Calculated Risk, and it is rather grim.

Short form, house prices are retrenching in a major way, and I would expect significant overshoot on the way down:

  • The Composite 20 index is off 20.3% from the peak.
  • The Composite 10 is off 17.7% over the last year.
  • The Composite 20 is off 16.6% over the last year.

In energy, oil has continued to fall rapidly, and I think that I have finally come across a good reason for this, which I will cover in a separate post.

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