I point you to some good work by Barry Ritholtz, who notes:

For example, crude energy materials “only” advanced 4.1% in April, with crude petroleum gaining 4.5 % and natural gas prices rising 4.3%. After the seasonal adjustments, these prices appeared rather odd: They showed energy prices falling by 0.2%, while gasoline costs dropping 4.6%.

It turns out that this all goes back into the numbers in July.

According to this article, if prices were flat, we would still see a 16.3% increase in July….Not pretty.