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A Deep Dive on the Oil Field Strikes in Saudi Arabia


Potential attack routes


Imagery of the attack


Detail image with directions

A week ago, cruise missiles/drones (really a missile) hit the Abqaiq oil processing facility and the Khuaru oil field, knocking out about 5% of world oil production.

The Houthis in Yemen claimed responsibility, but the Saudis and the US government claim that it was an Iranian strike.

While it is highly likely that the Iranians have been providing the technical support to the Houthi drone effort, the provenance of the actual attacks is unclear.

What is clear is that the House of Saud is facing some well-deserved blow-back for their brutal war on the people of Yemen.

There is a claim that the Houthis lacked the ability to make a missile with the range for this task, but given that the Houthis literally had a static displays showing missiles with ranges up to 1700 km 2½ months ago, which would suggest that these capabilities are nowhere near as difficult to acquire as has been implied.

The question here is guidance, and why I call this a missile rather than a drone; the 1250 km range puts the vehicle well out of the range of the control of a base statement without a satellite link, which the Houthis do not possess.

The attacks are very precise.

In fact, the precision seems to exceed the what one could get with GPS, which could not be any less than the 15 meter range.

It is possible that they get less error by using  a D-GPS installation, which could increase the accuracy to less than 1m, but the nearest installation (Al-Ahsa International Airport) would be about 80 km away, and you would need a relatively sophisticated inertial guidance to preserve that position information.

Similarly, the use of Terrain Contour Matching (TERCOM) might work, but again this would seem to exceed the capabilities of the Houthis.

Given that the Russian KH-5, that the Iranian Soumar is derived from has a CEP of 25m, this implies some sort of terminal guidance.

The two alternatives here are some sort of image based targeting, either TV of IR, or the use of a laser designator on the ground.

Given that the area around both Abqaiq and Khuaru are majority Shia (See map, blue is Shia, red is Sunni, yellow is Wahhabi), I think that there is a very real possibility that there was someone on the ground designating the targets.

As an aside, it should be noted that these attacks indicate a serious shortcoming of the US Patriot SAM system as compared to the Russian S-300 and S-400.

First, the Patriot has about a 90 degree coverage as compared to the full 360 degree coverage given by the Russian systems.

It should be noted that the MEADS missile system would have resolved this issue.

Secondly, the Russian systems are designed to use quick erecting elevated radar masts which are more likely to detect low flying cruise missiles.

Certainly, the Russians are using this event to sell their systems.

Nooooooooooooooooo!!!!!

Iron Man director John Favreau has announcedthat he intends to direct a new Star Wars Holiday Special.

To my shame, I saw it when it came out, and that which is seen cannot be unseen:

Even though the Star Wars prequels received their fair amount of criticism from longtime fans of the sci-fi saga, nothing has ever received as much scorn as the totally weird Star Wars Holiday Special. Aired in 1978, the program took place after the events of Star Wars: A New Hope and followed Han Solo and Chewbacca as they tried to evade the Empire and get to the Wookiee home world of Kashyyyk in order to celebrate “Life Day” with Chewie’s father Itchy, his wife Malla, and his son Lumpy. Yeah, the Star Wars Holiday Special is quite a trip, and if Jon Favreau has his way, he’d like to create a new Star Wars Holiday Special for Disney+ someday.

No. Just no.

Elmer Gantry for the 21st Century

This is extreme enough that it might even embarrass his late father, a man not known for shame:

At Liberty University, all anyone can talk about is Jerry Falwell Jr. Just not in public.

“When he does stupid stuff, people will mention it to others they consider confidants and not keep it totally secret,” a trusted adviser to Falwell, the school’s president and chancellor, told me. “But they won’t rat him out.”

That’s beginning to change.

Over the past year, Falwell, a prominent evangelical leader and supporter of President Donald Trump, has come under increasing scrutiny. News outlets have reported on business deals by Liberty University benefiting Falwell’s friends. Trump’s former personal attorney Michael Cohen claimed that he had helped Falwell clean up racy “personal” photographs.

Based on scores of new interviews and documents obtained for this article, concerns about Falwell’s behavior go well beyond that—and it’s causing longtime, loyal Liberty University officials to rapidly lose faith in him.

………

In interviews over the past eight months, they depicted how Falwell and his wife, Becki, consolidated power at Liberty University and how Falwell presides over a culture of self-dealing, directing university resources into projects and real estate deals in which his friends and family have stood to make personal financial gains. Among the previously unreported revelations are Falwell’s decision to hire his son Trey’s company to manage a shopping center owned by the university, Falwell’s advocacy for loans given by the university to his friends, and Falwell’s awarding university contracts to businesses owned by his friends. “We’re not a school; we’re a real estate hedge fund,” said a senior university official with inside knowledge of Liberty’s finances. “We’re not educating; we’re buying real estate every year and taking students’ money to do it.”

Liberty employees detailed other instances of Falwell’s behavior that they see as falling short of the standard of conduct they expect from conservative Christian leaders, from partying at nightclubs, to graphically discussing his sex life with employees, to electioneering that makes uneasy even those who fondly remember the heyday of the late Rev. Jerry Falwell Sr., the school’s founder and Falwell Jr.’s father, and his Moral Majority.

In January, the Wall Street Journal reported that in the run-up to Trump’s presidential campaign, Cohen hired John Gauger, a Liberty University employee who runs a private consulting firm, to manipulate online polls in Trump’s favor. Not previously reported is the fact that, according to a half-dozen high-level Liberty University sources, when Gauger traveled to New York to collect payment from Cohen, he was joined by Trey Falwell, a vice president at Liberty. During that trip, Trey posted a now-deleted photo to Instagram of around $12,000 in cash spread on a hotel bed, raising questions about his knowledge of Gauger’s poll-rigging work. Trey did not respond to requests for comment.

Jerry Falwell Jr. responded to more than two dozen written questions, defending his actions and criticizing the reporting of this article. “I fear that the true information I am sharing in good faith will simply not make any difference. And will only result in more questions,” Falwell said. He declined to answer subsequent questions.

………

That growth is driven largely by a vast increase in the number of online students at the school, who now number some 95,000. Many Falwell confidants are concerned with where they see that university tuition money going: into university-funded construction and real estate projects that enrich the Falwell family and their friends.

Among these projects is a Lynchburg shopping center that is owned by Liberty University but which members of the Falwell family have a personal financial stake in operating, according to emails obtained by me.

Read the whole article.

Also, read this whole article from the same author.

This guy is dirty as hell.

More Problems for Boeing

The already beyond schedule 777X aircraft has experienced another setback, with a cargo door blowing off during static testing.

I’m beginning to think that they they really don’t know how to build airplanes any more:

Boeing’s new widebody jet, the 777X, suffered a setback Thursday afternoon during a high-pressure stress test on the ground when one of the airplane’s cargo doors exploded outward.

One 777X employee working in a nearby bay at Boeing’s Everett plant said he heard “a loud boom and the ground shook.”

The accident happened to what’s called the “static test airplane,” one of the two airplanes in any new jet program that are built for ground testing only and will never fly. It was during the final test that must be passed as part of the airplane’s certification by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

The failure of the door will require careful analysis to find out why it happened, and it may mean Boeing will have to replace the door and repeat the test.

The 777X program is already delayed due to a problem with development of the GE-9X engine that will power it. In July, Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg revealed on a quarterly earnings call that the first 777X intended to fly, which rolled out of the Everett factory in March, will not make it into the air until next year.

This ground test failure is another blow.

………

The massively larger wings of the 777X are also carbon composite, with a folding tip, and during Thursday’s test those must have flexed in a similarly impressive way to those of the 787. This time, however, though the wings did not give way; it was one of the doors that failed — an outcome that is definitely not supposed to happen.

Boeing is no longer an aircraft manufacturer, it’s a hedge fund pretending to be an aircraft manufacturer.

Moo Devin, Moo

After suing parody twitter accounts, including one to claiming to be his non-existent cow, Devin Nunez then sued his own constituents for saying mean things about him.

Well, now it has finally occurred to the distinguished gentleman that suing voters in his own district for defamation is a stupid idea:

The campaign for Devin Nunes on Tuesday dropped its lawsuit against the people who accused the Republican congressman of being a “fake farmer” and tried to get his ballot designation removed.

The campaign filed the lawsuit last month in Tulare County Superior Court, alleging the group conspired with “dark money” groups to injure the campaign.

Brian Whelan, a local attorney representing Nunes’ constituents, said in a news release his clients “prevailed and won without having had to square off.” He represents retired farmer Paul Buxman, librarian Hope Nisly and Daniel O’Connell, an agrarian scholar.

Nunes’ lawsuit was an attack on his clients’ rights to free speech and to petition the government, Whelan said.

“Mr. Nunes made a statement that these important rights were to be disregarded when applied to the very powerful,” Whelan said.

It appears though that this not mean that Nunes is done with filing dumb-ass lawsuits for what is basic first amendment protected political activity:

The Daily Caller reported that Nunes filed a lawsuit on Wednesday against two defendants: Fusion GPS, an opposition research firm behind the Steele dossier that outlines alleged ties between President Donald Trump and Russia; and the Campaign for Accountability, which filed ethics complaints against Nunes.

Kapetan declined to elaborate on what the new evidence is, but he said the investigation conducted by the Nunes campaign may be forwarded to the Department of Justice.

Whelan noted his clients are not named in the new lawsuit. He said that if there was new evidence, the Nunes campaign wouldn’t have dismissed the lawsuit against his clients.

Nunes also is suing social media giant Twitter, the people behind two parody Twitter accounts and McClatchy, The Bee’s parent company.

I expect some sanctions at the end of this for Nunes being a vexatious litigant.

Not Great

The latest job creation stats are out, and it’s kind of grim:

Hiring cooled in August, the latest in a long line of data released this summer that indicates President Trump’s trade war is starting to bite into an economy that could be on the verge of entering a rough patch.

The U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in August, the Labor Department said Friday, below expectations of 160,000 job gains. The numbers were padded in part because the government hired a large number of temporary workers for the 2020 Census.

The hiring slowdown comes as broader economic growth has softened this year. The manufacturing sector is in a recession, and businesses have curtailed spending, largely as a result of headwinds from abroad and Trump’s trade policy whiplash.

This is a “murky” time for the economy with “significant risks,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said Friday during remarks in Switzerland.

………

So far this year, job gains have averaged 143,000 a month, a noticeable downgrade from last year, when job gains averaged 192,000 a month, according to Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

………

The job market still looks strong with more job openings than unemployed people. Wages grew at an annual pace of 3.2 percent in August, well above inflation and a slightly better-than-expected pace. The number of hours that U.S. employees are working also rose, typically a sign that companies are asking workers to stay later.

The U.S. economy has been growing for more than a decade now, and the gains appear to be reaching more people. The African American unemployment rate fell to an all-time low of 5.5 percent in August, and the labor force participation rate edged up to 63.2 percent, one of the highest rates in recent years as more people are finding jobs.

Note that this is still a lower labor force participation rate is still about 3% lower than before the great recession.

And while rising wages is a good thing, it should also be noted that job creation numbers were revised down for June and July.

A lot of the experts are putting these weak numbers to the trade war, but the Trump tax cuts have also contributing to an explosion of stock buybacks, as opposed to investments in new plant and equipment.

Why Tax Incentives Suck

Because, in addition to having a payback time that is measured in millennia, if that, they are fundamentally corrupt and corrupting:

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy on Friday vetoed legislation that would have extended the state’s controversial tax break law, and he recommended a sweeping overhaul of a program state investigators say benefited powerful insiders at the expense of taxpayers.

“For the past six years, New Jersey has operated under a severely flawed tax incentive program that wasted taxpayer money on handouts to connected companies instead of creating jobs and economic growth,” Murphy said in a prepared statement.

………

The veto follows weeks of talks between the governor’s office and legislative leaders, as well as months of public scrutiny, including a WNYC-ProPublica investigation that detailed how South Jersey political boss George E. Norcross III and his associates helped craft — and benefit from — the tax break program.

Of the $1.6 billion in incentives awarded to companies in his hometown, Camden, $1.1 billion flowed to businesses and nonprofits owned by or connected to Norcross, the news organizations found. Norcross has denied any wrongdoing and defended the incentives as a tool to revive the state’s impoverished cities.

………

Murphy called Friday for shrinking the tax break initiative by capping overall awards at $400 million and targeting tax credits for small businesses, while beefing up the state’s ability to monitor hiring and direct awards to underdeveloped areas. He would replace the two expired tax break programs with five smaller programs catering to high-growth industries, mixed-use projects, historic preservation and the redevelopment of contaminated land.

Politically connected insiders benefiting from government subsidies is not a bug, it’s a feature.

Yet more of the neoliberal policies that privatize profits and socialize losses.

Mandy Rice Davies Applies*

In the annals of self-serving security bullsh%$, this is in the top 10:

After promising to offer tools to let users limit “cookies,” tiny files that help internet and advertising companies track users, Alphabet Inc.’s Google suggested it won’t go any further, saying in a blog post that blocking cookies entirely could be counterproductive for user privacy.

The post from late last week has drawn criticism in recent days from some privacy advocates who say Google’s Chrome internet browser should catch up to the stricter practices of rivals Firefox and Safari.

Ad tech companies and some digital publishers are wary of a major crackdown on cookies, saying it would hurt their businesses.

In its post, Google said blocking cookies will encourage the rise of other, more nefarious methods of tracking internet users.

………

“Many folks were expecting Google to do something. When major competitors have come out with a much praised user feature, you can imagine they would come out with something that competes with that,” said Jonathan Mayer, an assistant professor of computer science at Princeton University. “This notion that blocking cookies is bad for privacy is completely disingenuous.”

“I interpret the announcement as giving Google an opportunity to try to show forward momentum on privacy while at the same time not doing anything that would negatively impact its own business interests,” said Jason Kint, chief executive of Digital Content Next, a trade association for online publishers that has argued online tech platforms are harming competition and consumers. Google’s digital ad business uses data on users collected partially through cookies

………

The debate extends to the issue of who benefits financially from browser cookies. Google cited its own research showing that publishers lose an average of 52% of their advertising revenue when their readers block cookies.

The results differ substantially from an academic study published this spring, which found that publishers only receive about 4% more ad revenue for an ad impression that has a cookie enabled than for one that doesn’t.

So, Google is claiming that other sites aren’t already using these “nefarious methods”, (They are, I’m talking to you Verizon & AT&T), and that it will cost them money, so please turn off your cookie blocker.

Google, go Cheney yourself.

*Well, they would say that, wouldn’t they?

Shades of Bobby Tables

Some hacker who thought that he was cleverer than he actually was, decided to get a vanity license plate reading “Null”.

He figured that it might prevent him from getting parking tickets as well.

No such luck. Not only did he get tickets, he also got bills for an additional $12,000.00 in parking tickets that were listed as, “Null.”

So basically, he executed a code injection attack on himself:

The relationship between Americans and their automobiles is a complicated one. More than mere transport, cars can become extensions of one’s personality—think of stereotypes about drivers of a particular model like a Corvette, for instance. Since cars are mass-produced, it’s natural that people want to personalize them. Sometimes it’s covering them with every bit of chromed plastic you can find at JC Whitney. Sometimes it’s plastering them in stickers. And sometimes, it might just be a personalized number plate.

The rules for personalized plates vary depending on the state in which you’re registering your car. These can foster creativity, but today we have a cautionary tale from California, which reveals the risks of being too creative. It’s the story of a security researcher known as Droogie, who presented his experience at the recent DEF CON conference in Las Vegas. Droogie decided his new vanity plate should read “NULL.” While he did this mainly for the giggles, he told the audience that there was an ulterior motive, as reported by Mashable:

Droogie’s hope was that the new plate would exploit California’s DMV ticketing system in a similar manner to the classic xkcd “Bobby Tables” cartoon. With any luck, the DMV’s ticket database would see “NULL” and consign any of his tickets to the void. Unfortunately, the exact opposite happened. 

Oops.

Russia Gets Antitrust Right

Russia has not been hobbled by the counterfactual and ahistorical school of though that permeates the United States, so they are actually inclined to take action for monopolistic behavior.

I think that their experience in 1990s, when their country was pillaged by oligarchs and western financial institutions has contributed to these attitudes.

Now, they have have unloaded a well-deserved can of whup-ass on the poster child for anti-competitive behavior, Apple Computer:

Russian officials opened an antitrust investigation into Apple for restricting and removing parental control apps from its App Store shortly after the company released its own competing service, the latest sign of the growing scrutiny of Silicon Valley’s power.

Russia’s Federal Antimonopoly Service said late Thursday that it would investigate whether Apple had violated Russian competition law when it rejected a parental control app made by Kaspersky Lab, a Russian cybersecurity company, from the iPhone App Store. The Russian agency said that after reviewing Kaspersky’s complaint, it concluded that Apple had rejected the app, which it had previously approved, and set unclear requirements for app developers.

The New York Times reported in April that shortly after Apple introduced tools to help people limit the time they and their children spent on iPhones, the company removed or restricted popular apps that offered similar services. Apple said the apps improperly used technologies that gave them too much access to users’ data.

In June, Apple reversed itself and allowed the apps to return with the same technologies, as long as they promised to not “sell, use or disclose to third parties any data for any purpose.” Many of the apps have since returned to the App Store.

………

Kaspersky said in a blog post that despite Apple’s policy reversal, the Silicon Valley company has still put parental control apps at a disadvantage. As part of its complaint, Kaspersky said that Apple’s rules for returning to the App Store were vague, that Apple prohibited the apps from sharing data with third-party analytics firms to improve their services and that Apple did not allow the apps to use the same technology it did to help parents control their children’s phones.

………

Two other developers of parental control apps, Kidslox and Qustodio, have complained to the European authorities that Apple unfairly blocked their apps. At least one American company has lodged similar complaints in conversations with Justice Department officials, according to a person close to the talks who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were private.

This investigation is justified, Apple is an anti-competitive actor: They one of the leaders in the efforts to collude to depress Silicon Valley wages, and now they have placed an (as yet not activated) kill switch on their latest MacBooks to brick machines that are serviced by 3rd parties.

Joe Biden’s Marijuana Legalization Isn’t Legalization

What he wants to do is to reschedule from 1 to 2.

This will place in the same category as cocaine and methamphetamines, which means that its distribution will still be tightly restricted, and usage outside of those tight conditions remain a felony.

It also means that he will be making the manufacture and distribution the exclusive purview of big pharma.

It’s actually worse than the status quo, which is not a surprise, “Uncle Joe” has been among the most hardcore of the drug warriors for over 4 decades:

No one person created America’s war on drugs. No individual is responsible for the accompanying manufactured crises of mass incarceration and impoverishment of working class communities of color. But in the same shamed strata as Richard Nixon and Nancy Reagan, in the view of many, you can find Joe Biden, the wobbly 2020 frontrunner and former vice president.

In his 40 years in the Senate, as is now well known, Biden was a key architect of harsh criminal penalties for nonviolent drug users. Undoing much of his own work was one way to make sense of a large part of the criminal justice plan his presidential campaign recently released. Finding a centrist’s safe-and-happy medium on weed in particular, Biden has not embraced legalization—a.k.a. commercialized, recreational pot use—but has claimed to back decriminalization, or removing at least most pot offenses from the criminal justice system.

But Biden is actually pushing a policy that could wreck the growing American weed industry and massively disrupt users’ access to the drug, attorneys, consultants, academics, and entrepreneurs well-versed in US cannabis policy say.

“I view Biden’s plan as a ham-fisted handing over of cannabis to the pharmaceutical industry,” said Gavin Kogan, a California-based cannabis executive and attorney who chairs Grupo Flor, a large, vertically-integrated cannabis firm.

Cannabis is currently listed as a Schedule I controlled substance, the classification intended for drugs with a high potential for abuse and no medical value—a designation contradicted by a 2017 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine review, mocked on a daily basis by dozens of states with medical-use laws, and that even Attorney General William Barr apparently believes is untenable.

Other than cannabis, there are no major state-legal markets for Schedule I drugs. Would making weed Schedule II—intended only for strictly controlled pharmaceutical drugs, and not recreational nor wellness products, the rubrics under which cannabis is often marketed and sold to Americans—make more sense? It might, but here’s the catch: Drugs listed under Schedule II (which include cocaine and methamphetamine as well as prescription opiates like fentanyl) are available legally but only under strict Food and Drug Administration controls. That is, only with a doctor’s prescription, only after a lengthy FDA-overseen approval process that can include years of clinical trials (and then sold only via a licensed pharmacy), and only for limited applications.

In other words, there are no Schedule II drugs grown, processed, and sold in the way cannabis is brought to market in the United States, either—so that label, too, is probably inadequate. More to the point, if strictly enforced to the letter, Biden’s marijuana policy could rip cannabis away from its current producers and sellers and hand over control of commercial weed to corporate interests instead.

“If the federal government actually enforced the CSA [Controlled Substances Act] Schedule II [on cannabis in a Biden administration], then almost all current state-legal activities would be banned and could be shut down,” said Jonathan Caulkins, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s Heinz College who has served as co-director of the nonpartisan RAND Corporation’s Drug Policy Research Center.

………

It wasn’t just advocates with skin—financial or otherwise—in the game suggesting Biden’s plan would likely amount to a gift to a few key players. Experts said the impact of the policy, if enacted, was pretty cut-and-dried.

“To the extent that FDA regulation always favors bigger companies that can afford to meet the regulations, then, yes, putting cannabis in Schedule II would be a sort of Big Pharma model,” said David Herzberg, a historian at the University at Buffalo who specializes in drug policy and authored Happy Pills in America: From Miltown to Prozac, a review of how prescription drugs have been developed, marketed, and sold.

………

It’s not clear exactly how Biden hit upon Schedule II as the magic solution, or if he took input from drug-policy reform advocates or cannabis industry players—or took cues instead from the anti-legalization activists working against them. A spokesman for Biden’s campaign did not respond to emails, text messages, or a phone call seeking comment.

“There’s no way this [Biden’s plan] will ever go far enough to remedy the damages these communities of color have suffered,” said Solonje Burnett, co-founder of the Brooklyn-based cannabis brand hub Humble Bloom, adding that his was a “half measure” that put him on “the wrong side of history, again.”

………

“His stance is to blow up 90 percent of the existing regulated and traditional market,” said Sean Donahoe, an Oakland, California-based cannabis-industry consultant. That could be a disruption worse, even, than any George Bush or Barack Obama-era crackdown—when many businesses and operators suffered raids or received threatening letters.

This “shows [Biden’s] fundamental worldview is framed through a corporate lens with no regard for existing operators, nor good public policy,” Donahoe added.

As absurd as it might be to list cannabis in Schedule I, lumping weed with opiates, coke, and pharmaceuticals in Schedule II is also intellectually dishonest, critics said.

………

The proposal would do for cannabis “the same thing it’s done for meth: Ensure reduced research initiatives, selective prosecution, and a thriving black market,” said Michael Backes, a Southern California-based cannabis industry consultant and author of Cannabis Pharmacy: The Practical Guide to Medical Marijuana.

This is classic Biden:  It’s wrong, and favors entrenched and predatory incumbents, just like he did with the credit card industry.

They Have Forgotten How to Make Airliners

I am referring, of course, to Boeing, which is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic with the 737 and 787:

Boeing is considering the drastic move of temporarily halting 737 MAX production and rejigging 777X assembly plans as uncertainty continues over its two newest commercial aircraft programs.

Executives at the beleaguered aerospace giant acknowledged July 24 that it will accelerate assembly of 777 freighters next year to offset the impact of a slowdown on the new 777X linked to its General Electric GE9X engines. Yet, despite facing what could be a yearlong delay to flight test and delivery, the widebody program issues barely register when laid next to those of the 737.

………

While many analysts embraced the news as a rare bit of clarity in a fluid situation, Boeing’s earnings call comments suggest that the MAX’s notional return-to-service timeline and related ramifications are tenuous estimates.

………

Boeing has been working on software and training changes designed to convince regulators that the MAX is ready to fly again. While neither the FAA nor Boeing discussed public return-to-service timelines in the weeks after the grounding, Boeing was set to present a finalized version of its changes to the FAA in April when several issues cropped up. Boeing did not provide a revised timeline estimate until its recent second-quarter charge revelation. During Boeing’s second-quarter call, Muilenburg reiterated that Boeing’s current assumptions include delivering the final package detailing the changes to the FAA “in the September time frame.”

………

While next year’s 737 production plans remain in flux, Boeing has already decided to make changes in its 777 assembly plan to ensure it maintains its current rate even as delays push back the 777X’s debut.

“We continue to expect 777 delivery rates to be approximately 3.5 aircraft per month in 2019,” Muilenburg says. “Given the pressure around [the] 777X first-delivery timeline, we are reassessing the 2020 skyline. In light of the strong demand for our freighter line, we intend to mitigate some of the impact by producing more 777 current-generation freighters in 2020.”

“2020 skyline?”  Someone just won a game of corporate bullsh%$ bingo.

Stop worrying about the business, and start worrying about the damn planes.

In the Annals of Unserious Aircraft Carrier Design………


Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

The Nevskoye Design Bureau has revealed a design for a nuclear powered Russian supercarrier, but it is seriously weird:

The Nevskoye Design Bureau (part of Russia’s United Shipbuilding Corporation) unveiled the newest Project 11430E ‘Lamantin’ nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. Its mockup was shown on the design bureau’s display stand at the St. Petersburg international maritime defense show.

………

According to the materials presented on the Nevskoye Design Bureau’s display stand, the aircraft carrier that will get a nuclear-powered propulsion unit will displace 80,000-90,000 tonnes, feature a maximum length of 350 meters, have sea endurance of about 120 days and will be capable of developing a speed of about 30 knots. The aircraft carrier will have a crew of 2,800 and its air task force will comprise 800 personnel. The carrier will have a service life of over 50 years.

All I have to work from is the picture, but this is not a half baked design.

First, and most tellingly, is the inclusion of both catapults and a ramp.

It makes no sense, once you have accommodations for the first catapult, the impact on the design, and the cost, for subsequent catapults is far less.

What’s more, ramp launched aircraft can carry less fuel and weapons.

The second oddity is what appears to be a sonar installation in the bow of the model (the white spot on the bulbous bow), which is rarely (if ever) put on an aircraft carrier, if just because when launching and recovering aircraft it will be operating at very high speeds, which means that ambient noise would obscure any information from the system.

Finally, the island appears to be designed with little regard for managing deck operations,.

The last two items are admittedly minor nitpicks, and would probably be modified in a back and forth between design bureau and customer, but the ramp and the cat is just weird.

Normally, I Would Not Direct You to the Wall Street Journal Editorial Page, But ………

When it’s Bernie Sanders writing the OP/ED, and he is calling Donald Trump the worst kind of socialist, it bears repeating:

“America will never be a socialist country,” President Trump said as he launched his bid for re-election last week.

That declaration was an effort to frighten Americans and undermine growing support for expanding Medicare and Social Security—two popular programs that have long been derided as “socialist.” Mr. Trump’s declaration hypocritically ignores that he and his Republican colleagues are the nation’s leading purveyors of an insidious form of corporate socialism, which uses government power and taxpayer resources to enrich Mr. Trump and his billionaire friends.

………

Consider the corporate socialism we’ve seen on Wall Street, where the high priests of unfettered capitalism reign. As you will recall, Wall Street’s deification of “free markets” went out the window in 2008 as they watched the financial crisis caused by their own greed and illegal behavior threaten the existence of some of the largest financial institutions in the country. Suddenly, Wall Street became strong supporters of big-government socialism.

………

But more Americans are noticing the contradiction between coddled socialism for the rich and the destruction of opportunity for everyone else. I am confident that we will be able to build a grass-roots movement that will not only defeat Donald Trump in this election but finally create a government that works for all people, not just the billionaire class.

 Preach it, Brother!

Peak Derp

The recent trend is for companies to come up with meat substitutes to replace animals in burgers.

Arby’s looked at this and said, “Here, hold my beer.”

Making burgers from carrots is one thing, but making carrots from burgers is demented:

From venison, elk, and duck to sandwiches with layers upon layers of meat and curly fries stacked on top, Arby’s has offered some particularly unique products in the past.

Now the sandwich chain is flipping the vegan “meat” trend on its head, leaning into its “We have the meats” slogan and creating its most bizarre concoction yet: the “megetable,” a vegetable made out of meat.

And Arby’s new megetable, the “Marrot,” is exactly what it sounds like: a meat-based carrot that not only tastes like the orange vegetable but has much of its nutritional value.

Conceptualized by Neville Craw, Arby’s brand executive chef, and his sous-chef Thomas Kippelen, the Marrot boasts more than 30 grams of protein and more than 70% of the recommended daily amount of vitamin A.

Of course, the first thing that is wrong is that Arby’s is making a meat carrot.

Almost is as disturbing is that Arby’s has an executive chef and sous chef.

Mind blown.

This Plane Does Not Fly, It’s Ugly Enough to Repel the Ground

We are seeing some interesting claims about the performance of the Celera 500L Aircraft, which is expected to make its first flight in the near future.

They are claiming a cruising speed of in excess of 460 mph and a maximum altitude of at least 65,000 feet, all while achieving something on the order of 30 miles per gallon of fuel.

They plan to achieve this with two 500 hp liquid cooled piston engines.

I call bullsh%$. That sort of performance would require some changes to the laws of aerodynamics, if just because the performance that they are claiming would require :

More than two years after The War Zone was first to report on a mysterious bullet-shaped aircraft appearing at the Southern California Logistics Airport near Victorville, a refined version of the plane has conducted taxi tests and looks to be getting close to its first flight. Even though much about its design and purpose remain unclear, we do know now that the aircraft, which is called the Otto Aviation Celera 500L, is definitely focused on potentially game-changing high-efficiency flight that has the potential to disrupt the aerospace marketplace.

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“Such a transportation system requires a unique aircraft. It must be capable of operation from any current airfield,” one of the patent documents says in its background section. “Preferably, it would have operating costs well below current costs and competitive with commercial airliners, cruise at higher system speed than current commercial aircraft, have a longer range with full passenger and luggage load than most current business aircraft, provide passenger comfort comparable to commercial aircraft, and be capable of all weather operation. The plane should also provide for ease of maintenance and require only a single pilot.”

The patent goes on to describe a notional aircraft that would cruise between 460 and 510 miles per hour at an altitude of up to 65,000 feet, yielding a fuel efficiency rate of between 30 and 42 miles per gallon. To put this in perspective, the Pilatus PC-12, a popular light, single-engine turboprop aircraft has a service ceiling of 30,000 feet, a cruising speed just under 330 miles per hour, and still burns, on average, 66 gallons of jet fuel per hour, for a fuel economy of roughly five miles to the gallon. Even going to a Learjet 70, which has similar speed performance to what’s stated in the Celera patent documents, but still nowhere near as high a ceiling, we are talking about roughly three miles per gallon of gas at cruise. So, Otto Aviation is talking about performance that is at least 10 times more efficient than existing light business jets with similar cruise capabilities.

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One of Otto Aviation’s patents also says that the intakes and exhausts we mentioned before are supposed to help leverage this engine design to provide even greater efficiency. The exhaust setup is also supposed to include a novel heat exchanger that combines heated cooling air with exhaust gases provide a small additional boost in thrust. It all remains to be seen whether or not the combination of an A03 optimized for the Celera 500L specifically, together with intercoolers and specialized exhausts, will be enough to get the plane anywhere close to the kind of high-altitude performance Otto is clearly aiming for broadly

Just a few notes from my decidedly non-aerodynamicist  perspective:

  • For the speed and altitude that they are targeting, we are looking at about ¾ Mach, which means that you are going to see transonic effects.
  • There are no provisions for area ruling to prevent shock wave formation and the resultant drag rise.  (i.e. area ruling)
  • The propeller is unswept, and at the speeds that they are talking about, the tips would (again) lose efficiency at high mach numbers.

I can see this as offering similar performance similar to something like the the Piaggio P.180, but that is about 100 mph slower and 20,000 feet lower altitude.  (As an FYI, the fuel sipping P.180 gets about 9 mpg)

Reliability would probably be lower, as pistons are less reliable than turbines, and the payload would likely be less too, as piston engines are also heavier.

The claims are so outrageous that I expect someone on the management team to have a last name of Bede.